Bitcoin Puell Multiple, 128-Day¶
What It Measures¶
Bitcoin Puell Multiple, 128-Day compares today’s daily issuance value in USD with the average daily issuance value over the last 128 days.
It answers the same core question as the canonical Puell Multiple, but on a shorter horizon:
How unusual is current miner issuance value relative to the last four months rather than the last full year?
In simplified form:
This version is not a replacement for the canonical 365-day series. It is a faster variant.
The purpose of the 128-day window is to make the metric more responsive to medium-term changes in miner conditions while still keeping enough smoothing to avoid reacting to every short-lived move.
How To Use It¶
The 128-day version is useful when the goal is to track intermediate shifts in miner issuance conditions.
It helps answer questions such as:
- Is miner issuance value strengthening or weakening faster than the annual version suggests?
- Has the market already turned in miner-economics terms, even if the 365-day metric is still slow to confirm it?
- Is a change in miner conditions becoming persistent over a medium horizon?
This version works best as a bridge between the other two:
- 365-day Puell Multiple for macro cycle context,
- 128-day Puell Multiple for medium-term regime shifts,
- 30-day Puell Multiple for short-term reactivity.
What It Can Say About Price And Market Regime¶
Faster recognition of regime change¶
The 128-day window responds faster than the canonical version when miner issuance value begins to accelerate or compress. That makes it useful around transitions, when the annual series may still be anchored by older conditions.
Less noisy than the 30-day version¶
At the same time, it is not as reactive as the 30-day series. It is less likely to overstate short bursts of strength or weakness that do not persist.
When this version is most useful¶
If the question is, has the miner environment shifted over the last few months?, the 128-day variant is often the most balanced choice.
It is not the canonical Puell Multiple. It is the medium-horizon version for analysts who want earlier confirmation than the 365-day line can provide, but more stability than the 30-day line offers.
Historical Background¶
The standard Puell framework is built around comparing today’s issuance value with a historical average. Shorter and medium-length windows are later adaptations of that same logic. Their purpose is not to redefine the indicator, but to make it useful at different analytical speeds.
The 128-day version is best understood as the medium-speed member of the Puell family.