NUPL measures the spread between market cap and realized cap as a share of market cap. Positive values mean current network valuation sits above aggregate on-chain cost basis; negative values mean it sits below. It is a valuation-spread ratio, not momentum, flow, or realized P/L.
A rising series shows the unrealized profit share expanding as price moves ahead of realized cap. A falling series shows that spread compressing, either through price weakness or realized cap catching up as coins reprice. MVRV and Realized Cap provide the closest context.
The same NUPL decline can describe different regimes. It may reflect a bearish markdown, or a post-rally ownership reset where coins move at higher prices and lift realized cap. Below-zero readings define loss-dominant supply conditions, not exact bottom timing.
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