This view anchors the market-side of the stack with the daily BTCUSD reference series and adds three context layers: SMA 50, SMA 200, and Bollinger Bands (20,2). The base series is still price; the overlays map trend persistence, 20-day dispersion, and distance from the 200-day mean.
A sustained hold above SMA200 usually marks a structurally strong regime, while repeated failures below it usually mark the opposite. BB Width tracks compression and expansion, and Dev vs SMA200 or Z vs SMA200 help separate ordinary pullbacks from statistically stretched moves.
This is the only chart in the set where the signal is entirely market-priced rather than UTXO-derived. SMA200, BB Width, and Z vs SMA200 are transforms of the same price series, so they should not be treated as independent confirmation in the way Realized Price or MVRV would be.
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