AVIV-NUPL measures unrealized profit or loss using Active Market Cap and Investor Cap. Active Market Cap values Active Supply at the current Bitcoin price, while Investor Cap is Realized Cap minus Thermocap. The metric shows whether the market value of active supply is above or below its investor value, and how large that difference is.
AVIV-NUPL is centered on the True Market Mean, with 0 marking the point where Bitcoin's market price equals the True Market Mean. Positive values indicate unrealized profit relative to this level, while negative values indicate unrealized loss. The +2.0, +1.0, -1.0 and -1.5 SD bands are calculated from AVIV's historical distribution and then mapped to the AVIV-NUPL scale.
The SD bands use expanding statistics rather than a rolling window. The cumulative mean and sample standard deviation of AVIV start in 2012 and include the current observation at each point. Earlier data remains part of the calculation as new observations arrive, so the bands move gradually over time.