AVIV compares Bitcoin's market price with the True Market Mean. The True Market Mean is Investor Cap divided by Active Supply. Investor Cap equals Realized Cap minus Thermocap, while Active Supply is circulating supply weighted by Liveliness. Together, these components allow AVIV to show how far Bitcoin’s market price is from the True Market Mean and whether it is trading above or below it. Viewed against its historical distribution, AVIV helps identify unusually high or low valuation conditions.
The chart centers AVIV on the True Market Mean, with 0 marking that price level. Positive values mean price is above it, while negative values mean price is below it. As AVIV rises or falls, the gap between market price and the True Market Mean moves with it. The +2.0, +1.0, -1.0 and -1.5 SD bands show how that gap compares with AVIV's historical distribution. Matching BTC price levels are shown on the right axis.
The SD bands use expanding statistics instead of a rolling window. The cumulative mean and sample standard deviation start in 2012 and include the current observation at each point. Earlier history stays in the calculation as new data arrives, so the bands adjust gradually over time.