An MVRV reading above 1.0 means spot valuation sits above the aggregate on-chain cost basis embedded in the UTXO set; below 1.0 means it has fallen through that basis. The ratio therefore frames unrealized profit and loss at the aggregate holder level rather than transfer activity or realized selling.
A rising ratio usually reflects expanding unrealized profit, while a falling ratio marks compression back toward realized value. The series is most useful with Realized Price, MVRV Z-Score, or cohort splits such as STH and LTH MVRV, where the key question is whether repricing is broad, stretched, or concentrated.
MVRV is a valuation spread, not a timing trigger. High readings can persist through late-cycle advances and sub-1.0 readings can persist through extended stress. What matters is distance from cost basis and the structure beneath it, especially whether Realized Cap is rising with price or being left behind.
Read full methodology